Should You Take Insurance in Blackjack? (No)
The dealer asks 'insurance?' and most players take it. The math says no — and the math is right. Here's why.
Blackjack insurance is a side bet that the dealer's hole card is a 10-value, paying 2:1 if true. The true odds are roughly 9:4 against — the casino gives you 2:1, taking a 7%+ house edge. For non-counters, always decline insurance. The only exception: card counters with a true count of +3 or higher have a positive expected value on insurance and should take it. Even then, only on counted shoes. "Even money" on a player blackjack is mathematically the same as taking insurance and equally bad.
What insurance actually is
When the dealer's up-card is an Ace, the casino offers "insurance" — a side bet up to half your original wager, paying 2:1 if the dealer has a 10-value hole card (making blackjack).
Logic: "Protect against dealer blackjack." Marketed as smart play.
Reality: it's a separate bet on the hole card's value. Mathematically isolated from your main hand.
The math
In a single deck (52 cards), 16 are 10-value (10, J, Q, K). Odds the hole card is 10-value:
- 16/49 (after Ace + your 2 cards visible) ≈ 32.7%
Casino pays 2:1, meaning fair odds would require 33.33%+ chance. The 32.7% is just below — a 1% house edge in the simplest case.
In multi-deck shoes with imperfect knowledge: house edge climbs to ~6-7% for the player without counting.
Why 'even money' is the same trap
When you have blackjack and the dealer shows Ace, the dealer offers "even money" — pay 1:1 immediately instead of waiting to see if dealer also has blackjack (push) or doesn't (you win 3:2).
Math: if you take insurance for half your bet, win the insurance, push the main hand → net +1× original bet. Same as even money.
It feels safer. It's mathematically identical to taking insurance, and equally a sucker bet.
When insurance IS correct
For card counters using Hi-Lo:
- True count ≥ +3: take insurance.
- Below +3: decline.
At +3, the proportion of 10-value cards remaining is high enough to flip insurance to positive expected value. This is the only scenario where insurance is mathematically correct.
For 99% of players (non-counters), this never applies. Always decline.
Why it's offered prominently
Casinos offer insurance prominently because it's a profitable side bet. The 1-7% house edge dwarfs the 0.5% main game edge. Insurance bets are pure casino margin.
Players take it because:
- It feels protective
- Loss aversion: protecting against a possible bad outcome feels more salient than the certain bet you're making
- The dealer asks — implies it's a normal play
What to do
When asked: just say "no insurance" or wave it off.
When you have blackjack and dealer shows Ace: "no even money."
You'll lose the occasional hand to dealer blackjack. The math says you'll come out ahead by accepting that.
For the broader basic strategy review: blackjack basic strategy.
Topics
- blackjack
- strategy